This was a blog recently received, written by Richard Haass. You can find his Substack at https://substack.com/home/post/p-150424669?source=queue&autoPlay=false. Seems relevant:
———————
Opaque (October 25, 2024)
Welcome to Home & Away. There are weeks when everything that needs to be said has pretty much been said, and this feels like one of them. So, we will keep this week’s newsletter short so as not to take too much of anyone’s time.
The election is just eleven days away depending on whether you insist on counting today and/or Election Day. Actually, it would be more accurate to say that voting ends on the evening of Tuesday, November 5, and that the election is already underway, as some ten percent or so of those who are likely to vote have already done so. That translates into approximately 17 to 21 million out of maybe 160 or at most 170 millionexpected voters, which is on the order of two-thirds of the roughly 245 million eligible voters.
I will confess that I find it hard to understand why so many who could vote choose not to. I say this even though I am well aware that for some it is less of a choice given that work and a lack of childcare or transportation can get in the way. Voting is after all one of the basic rights of living in a democracy. Plus, this is a particularly significant election given the many consequential issues that will fill the inbox of the 47th president and the differences—both large and numerous—between the two principal candidates.
And then there are the polls from virtually every swing state suggesting that the margin of victory for either candidate may well be small, which means that votes in quite a few states could be highly consequential in determining the next occupant of the Oval Office. Not to mention the importance of Senate and House races and whether the next president will have to contend with one or both chambers of Congress in opposition hands. So, I would hope readers of this newsletter will encourage those in their midst to get informed and exercise their precious right.
Speaking of which, I had several opportunities this week to hear from well-respected pollsters. My takeaway is that over the past few weeks the momentum has shifted slightly toward Trump, both at the national level and in the seven or so swing states.
I still am not entirely sure as to why. I somehow doubt Trump’s comments on Arnold Palmer have won him the support of those who rooted for the former golfing great or enjoy the drink named for him that mixes lemonade and iced tea in unspecified proportions. Or that fast-food afficionados have embraced Trump in the wake of his turn at McDonald’s. Whatever the cause—whether it reflects a move toward Trump or away from Harris based on issues such as the border, inflation, or for some other reason—the trend appears real, and it does not seem to have been slowed by Trump’s former chief of staff’s charges that the former president is a fascist who expressed admiration for Hitler and his generals.
Much less clear (and much more important) is where things stand even after this recent trend is acknowledged. Many pundits are claiming the presidential race is too close to call and that the final outcome will be close as well. Maybe, but maybe not. I would argue we do not know that it is close. Either of the two principal candidates could hold a meaningful advantage both nationally and in most or all of the swing states.
A better description of where things stand is that the race is too opaque to call, a reflection of what Donald Rumsfeld might term known unknowns: difficult-to-reach voters, difficult to measure first time voters, questions over turnout, undecideds, voters refusing to speak truthfully to pollsters, and so on. Polls have historically failed to adequately capture both Trump’s popularity as well as the extent of voter backlash (especially among women) to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. So, for better or worse, it may not be a late night Tuesday. And Election Day may not be followed by days or weeks of uncertainty. Or it might.
So be ready for any and all scenarios at the presidential level. The same holds for the House of Representatives, which appears to be ever so slightly positioned to turn Democratic but could remain in Republican hands. By contrast, the Senate seems highly likely to turn Republican. All of which is to say we could end up with a somewhat divided government, deeply divided government, or united government if one were to count the Supreme Court as being in Republican hands.
As for Away, just two things to mention. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the new Gang of Four, the alignment among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, with the purpose of both supporting one another and challenging the United States and the West. It is getting more serious by the day. The most recent development is the news that North Korea has sent several thousand troops to Russia for use in Ukraine (quite possibly in exchange for Russian help with its missile and nuclear programs) and that Russia has been providing the Iranian-backed Houthis with targeting data for its attacks on Western ships in the Red Sea. And then there is the evidence that several of the four are doing their best primarily through cyber means to influence our elections and politics here more broadly.
The second item involves the Middle East, where things pretty much stand where they were last week. Israel is pressing ahead militarily in both Gaza and Lebanon despite the worsening humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza; prospects for ceasefires, much less anything more ambitious diplomatically, remain slim despite Secretary of State Blinken’s latest trip to the region. Meanwhile, Israel has yet to carry out any retaliation against Iran, with “yet” being the operative word, as what is at issue is not whether Israel will retaliate, but rather when it will do so, the scale of the attack, and the choice of targets. All of which will probably contribute to the political trend in the United States discussed above, as continued conflict in the Middle East and Europe seems to benefit Donald Trump and cost Kamala Harris.
Otherwise, and it is a big otherwise, the World Series starts tonight. Not just any World Series, but one between the two best teams in baseball featuring the two best players. The outcome here is as well opaque, but I am going with my Yankees over the Dodgers in six.